Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3511 · ORD → EVV
departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 6:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at EVV more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EVV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at EVV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EVV?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at EVV that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
EVV usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
EVV (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.79 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.