Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3523 · FAR → ORD
departs 4:38 PM CT · arrives 6:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave FAR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAR
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
FAR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.