Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3540
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3540 · ORD → CMH
departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 7:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CMH that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
CMH usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip 0.05 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.