Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3570 LANDED 11:35 PM CT, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

MQ 3570 · PHX → ICT

took off 7:43 PM MT · landed 11:35 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ICT (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3570 · PHX → ICT

Odds over time