Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3612
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3612 · LAN → ORD
departs 3:53 PM ET · arrives 4:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave LAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
LAN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.39 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.