Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3612
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3612 · ORD → LAN
departs 1:10 PM CT · arrives 3:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 15%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAN more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at LAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAN?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
LAN usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into LAN at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
LAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.