Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3614
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3614 · XNA → DFW
departs 5:00 AM CT · arrives 6:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 22%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 9%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 10%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from XNA are usually not late
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.54 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.