Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3625
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3625 · LIT → ORD
departs 10:29 AM CT · arrives 12:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 14%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at LIT that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
10am departures from LIT are usually not late
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LIT (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.97 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.