Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3626
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3626 · SGF → ORD
departs 7:53 PM CT · arrives 9:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 33%
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from SGF are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SGF (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.