Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3631
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3631 · LIT → DFW
departs 7:43 PM CT · arrives 9:18 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 46%
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
65%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
65%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Leave LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LIT (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.97 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.