Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3639
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3639 · LRD → DFW
departs 6:53 PM CT · arrives 8:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 31%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LRD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at LRD that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
LRD usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LRD (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.