Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3683
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3683 · MEM → ORD
departs 10:32 AM CT · arrives 12:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 667 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MEM that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
MEM usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 1.11 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.