Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3683
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3683 · ORD → MEM
departs 8:05 AM CT · arrives 9:58 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 633 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MEM that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into MEM at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.14 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 733 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.58 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.