Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3687
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3687 · MTJ → DFW
departs 10:15 AM MT · arrives 1:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 37%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 10%
Fri 10/9 11%
Sat 10/10 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MTJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MTJ
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MTJ (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.