Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3690
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3690 · ORD → CVG
departs 7:29 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 20%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 21%
Thu 10/8 15%
Fri 10/9 20%
Sat 10/10 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.