Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3715 · GRR → ORD
departs 5:36 PM ET · arrives 6:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 16%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
GRR usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.24 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.