Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3717
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3717 · MSN → ORD
departs 6:43 PM CT · arrives 8:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
13%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
13%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN
Weather at each end
MSN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.