Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3741 · PIA → ORD
departs 9:50 AM CT · arrives 11:00 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 12%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
9am departures from PIA are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
ORD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PIA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.01 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.