Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3765 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

MQ 3765 · LAN → ORD

departs 5:40 AM ET · arrives 5:48 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at LAN that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from LAN are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.69 in

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3.66667 mi Precip0.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3765 · LAN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?