Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3768 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

MQ 3768 · RAP → DFW

departs 10:18 AM MT · arrives 1:42 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±8 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at RAP that day

↓ 10am departures from RAP are usually not late

Weather at each end

RAP (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.69 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3768 · RAP → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?