Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3769
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3769 · ORD → CWA
departs 11:00 PM CT · arrives 12:19 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 20%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at CWA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at CWA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CWA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CWA
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
CWA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.