Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3786 · DAY → ORD
departs 12:29 PM ET · arrives 12:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 17%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DAY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DAY that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
DAY usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
DAY (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.76 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.