Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3800
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3800 · ORD → SGF
departs 8:16 AM CT · arrives 10:03 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 11%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SGF that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Arrivals into SGF at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
SGF (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.