Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3800
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3800 · SGF → ORD
departs 10:35 AM CT · arrives 12:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 14%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
SGF is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
10am departures from SGF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SGF (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.