Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3802
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3802 · ORD → SGF
departs 11:56 AM CT · arrives 1:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 12%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi forecast at SGF that day
↑
11am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Arrivals into SGF at that hour are usually not late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
SGF (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.