Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3803
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3803 · DFW → SGF
departs 4:33 PM CT · arrives 6:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 27%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 10%
Fri 10/9 13%
Sat 10/10 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
4pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SGF usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
SGF (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.