Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3803
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3803 · SGF → DFW
departs 6:34 PM CT · arrives 8:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 48%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SGF (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.