Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3804
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3804 · PHX → BFL
departs 7:27 AM MT · arrives 9:01 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at BFL more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BFL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at BFL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BFL?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BFL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.