Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3815 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 3815 · ORD → STL

departs 12:29 PM CT · arrives 1:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into STL at that hour are usually not late

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.17 in

STL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.81 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3815 · ORD → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?