Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3826
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3826 · PHX → TUL
departs 12:45 PM MT · arrives 5:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
↑
Other factors
↑
12pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.