Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3828
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3828 · EVV → DFW
departs 5:19 AM CT · arrives 7:37 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave EVV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at EVV that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EVV (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.41 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.