Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3829
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3829 · TUL → DFW
departs 12:49 PM CT · arrives 2:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 40%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
12pm departures from TUL are usually not late
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.