Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3839
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3839 · XNA → ORD
departs 9:14 AM CT · arrives 11:11 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
XNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.44 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.