Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3840 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 3840 · DFW → XNA

departs 2:06 PM CT · arrives 3:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±12 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 2.1 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at XNA that day

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into XNA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip2.13 in

XNA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3840 · DFW → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?