Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3847
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3847 · DFW → XNA
departs 12:36 PM CT · arrives 1:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
12pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into XNA at that hour are usually not late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.