Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3852
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3852 · FCA → PHX
departs 2:19 PM MT · arrives 4:10 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 17%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave FCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FCA
Weather at each end
FCA (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.