Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3852
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3852 · PHX → FCA
departs 9:44 AM MT · arrives 1:49 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at FCA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at FCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to FCA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FCA
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FCA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.