Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3853 LANDED 11:53 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

MQ 3853 · PHX → MEM

took off 7:00 PM MT · landed 11:53 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MEM that day

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3853 · PHX → MEM

Odds over time