Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3862 · HHH → ORD
departs 2:03 PM ET · arrives 3:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 37%
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HHH is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HHH
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
HHH (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.