Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3950
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3950 · ORD → CVG
departs 3:23 PM CT · arrives 5:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 20%
Thu 10/8 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at CVG that day
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
CVG usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip 0.05 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.