Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3956
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3956 · MHK → DFW
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 7:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from MHK are usually not late
Weather at each end
MHK (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.