Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3963
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3963 · ORD → SGF
departs 8:50 PM CT · arrives 10:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SGF that day
↓
Other factors
↓
0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
SGF (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.