Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3972
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3972 · ORD → BMI
departs 4:28 PM CT · arrives 5:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BMI more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at BMI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BMI?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
BMI usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at BMI that day
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
BMI (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.