Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3977
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3977 · ATW → DFW
departs 12:39 PM CT · arrives 3:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 30%
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATW
↓
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
Weather at each end
ATW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.