Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3988
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3988 · TUL → DFW
departs 5:00 AM CT · arrives 6:17 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 18%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at TUL that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from TUL are usually not late
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.