Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3994
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3994 · LEX → DFW
departs 1:28 PM ET · arrives 2:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 49%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
1pm departures from LEX are usually not late
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LEX (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.19 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.