Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4005
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 4005 · LCH → DFW
departs 10:18 AM CT · arrives 11:51 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 26%
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LCH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LCH
↓
10am departures from LCH are usually not late
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LCH (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.