Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4009
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 4009 · ORD → ILM
departs 11:40 AM CT · arrives 3:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into ILM at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at ILM that day
↓
ILM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
ILM (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.