Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4031
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Tomorrow
MQ 4031 · SBA → PHX
departs 9:45 AM PT · arrives 11:23 AM MT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 15%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
15%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
15%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SBA is prone to delays
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from SBA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.