Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4033
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 4033 · XNA → PHX
departs 8:27 AM CT · arrives 9:18 AM MT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
8am departures from XNA are usually not late
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.44 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.